URUGUAY: un balotaje incierto

Dos encuestadoras dan como ganador al centroderechista Luis Lacalle Pou sobre el frenteamplista Daniel Martínez, mientras que otras dos firmas no han querido adelantar resultados, más cerrados de los que se esperaban.

En contraste con otras situaciones de tensión y violencia que se viven en otros países del continente, los uruguayos votaron con calma y alegría este domingo en un balotaje crucial para el destino del país sudamericano.

Las primeras proyecciones de votos difundidas por los canales de televisión arrojaron una pequeña ventaja no definitiva del candidato opositor, Luis Lacalle Pou.

Los circuitos electorales cerraron, sin mayores inconvenientes. Los canales de televisión quedaron habilitados para divulgar sus primeras proyecciones del resultado una hora después, a las 20:30 locales.

“Esto fue una fiesta democrática, de respeto, de tolerancia, donde nos pudimos saludar en la calle con gente que apoyaba la otra candidatura”, dijo el candidato oficialista Daniel Martínez en un mensaje de agradecimiento a su militancia, apenas terminó la votación.

Los 2,7 millones de electores definieron qué desean para el futuro del país: si un cuarto gobierno consecutivo de la coalición de izquierda Frente Amplio o el gobierno de una alianza de partidos opositores, que van de la centroizquierda a la derecha.

“Todo ha estado muy tranquilo. No ha habido ningún incidente de ningún tipo”, dijo a The Associated Press Javier Acosta, un funcionario universitario de 51 años, delegado de la coalición gobernante Frente Amplio en los circuitos electorales que funcionaron en una escuela pública del barrio Portones de Carrasco.

A media tarde, en un centro de estudios de secundaria cercano a la escuela, cuatro policías destinados a garantizar la normalidad de la votación mataban el aburrimiento tomando mate, la infusión típica del país, y mirando sus celulares.

El presidente saliente Tabaré Vázquez destacó la paz y las garantías de la democracia uruguaya cuando fue a votar: “Todos los uruguayos tenemos que sentirnos orgullosos de ser el pueblo que somos, respetuosos del derecho, de la Constitución y del opositor”.

La continuidad de la izquierda está representada por la candidatura de Daniel Martínez, un ingeniero aficionado al ciclismo de 62 años, exalcalde socialista de Montevideo y candidato del Frente Amplio.

El cambio lo representa Luis Lacalle Pou, un abogado aficionado al surf de 46 años, exsenador e hijo del expresidente Luis Lacalle Herrera, que gobernó entre 1990 y 1995. Lacalle Pou llegó al balotaje como candidato del centrista Partido Nacional, pero tras la primera vuelta logró sellar un acuerdo con otros cuatro partidos que van desde la derecha a la centroizquierda.

En las calles, muchos automóviles circulaban con banderas de sus partidos. Todas las encuestas auguraban una victoria de Lacalle Pou y sus partidarios se mostraron más eufóricos a lo largo del día.

“Tengo muchas elecciones y veo que vamos a ganar por un margen mayor al que dan las encuestas”, dijo Juan Laborde, un abogado de 72 años, delegado del Partido Nacional en la misma escuela que Acosta, el delegado del Frente Amplio.

Acosta no se animó a aventurar un resultado, pero cree que si no gana el Frente Amplio peligrarán derechos conquistados por los trabajadores en los últimos 15 años.

Laborde, en cambio, sostuvo que una victoria del Frente Amplio supondrá que el país mantenga “un modelo económico cercano al populismo, cuando se necesita una economía más abierta y sin tanta injerencia del Estado”.

El buen clima electoral fue resaltado también por Martínez y Lacalle Pou, los dos contendientes.

“El país tiene que salir adelante metiendo unidos, gane quien gane, debatiendo ideas, cada uno en su lugar”, dijo Martínez. “El que gane, en el carácter de ejecutivo; y el que pierda, como oposición, pero tratando de construir para el país”.

Lacalle Pou habló para contener los desbordes de entusiasmo de sus partidarios y criticó a los que usan el eslogan “se van”, en referencia a una posible derrota de la izquierda tras 15 años en el gobierno.

“Uruguay es un gran país, construido por mucha gente durante muchos años. Está bien la pasión, querer ganar, pero levantemos un poco la mira. Obviamente hay muchas cosas para cambiar, muchas cosas que están mal, muchos uruguayos sufriendo, pero la base nacional la construyeron muchos hombres y mujeres de muchos partidos, y eso es por suerte lo que nos diferencia y lo tenemos que cuidar”, manifestó.

En la primera vuelta de las elecciones, celebrada el 27 de octubre, Martínez fue el candidato más votado con el 39% de los sufragios, mientras que Lacalle Pou fue segundo con el 28,6%.

Sin embargo, tras esa votación, Lacalle Pou logró el respaldo del Partido Colorado (el tercero en la primera vuelta, con 12% de los votos), de Cabildo Abierto (cuarto, con 11%) y de los pequeños Partido de la Gente y Partido Independiente (1% cada uno).

El Frente Amplio no logró que ninguno de los diez partidos que compitieron en la primera vuelta apoyara a Martínez en el balotaje.

Todas las encuestas sitúan como favorito a Lacalle Pou. En su última proyección, difundida el jueves a la noche, la encuestadora Cifra informó que Lacalle Pou tiene una intención de voto del 51,5%, mientras que Martínez tiene el 44,5%. La encuesta fue realizada con 1.012 casos, con un margen de error de 3,1 puntos porcentuales.

De confirmarse los pronósticos, el resultado sería histórico por marcar la primera derrota del Frente Amplio desde que llegó al gobierno en 2005.

Durante los tres gobiernos consecutivos de la izquierda, la economía creció, el poder adquisitivo de los salarios experimentó una fuerte suba y se sancionaron leyes que garantizaron derechos como el casamiento gay, el aborto y la venta de marihuana en farmacias.

Sin embargo, el tercer gobierno del Frente Amplio, encabezado por el presidente Vázquez, ha tenido problemas importantes y finaliza con un índice de aprobación muy inferior a los anteriores.

Una reforma educativa fracasó, el vicepresidente Raúl Sendic debió renunciar en 2017 jaqueado por casos de corrupción, la inseguridad pública se deterioró hasta alcanzar un récord de 414 homicidios en 2018, la economía se estancó, se perdieron 50.000 puestos de trabajo, el desempleó subió hasta el 9% y el déficit fiscal alcanzó el 4,9%.

La oposición plantea que es necesario tomar medidas urgentes para reestablecer la seguridad pública, reformar el sistema educativo y ordenar las cuentas públicas y un gasto estatal que frecuentemente cae en el derroche.

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